I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet. I am the son of a funeral director. So, with the 2012 Presidential campaign coming to an end today (please, no lawyers and hanging chads), one candidate will still be very much alive and in good spirits and the other — well — dead and ready for the funeral and the grave. Before the shoveling begins, here’s my Election Day predictions and prognostications.
Unlike the 2000 Presidential Election — when my vote for George W. Bush helped to offset the shenanigans in Broward and Dade Counties and prevented the catastrophe of an Al Gore Presidency — my vote cast for Mitt Romney and Republican Senate Candidate Heather Wilson will not have much bearing on who wins in New Mexico. From all indications, the Land of Enchantment has not been in play this year. We will see Martin Heinrich, an Albuquerque liberal Democrat, win the U.S. Senate seat without much trouble. I’m sure that Ms. Wilson is a nice woman, but she has been a fairly weak candidate. You know that there is not much of a contest when Heinrich runs nothing but positive ads in the final month of the campaign.
It’s good to know that New Mexico is not needed for Gov.Romney to get to a majority in the Electoral College. While no one really knows what will happen today, I believe that Mitt Romney will win and he will win big. If I am wrong and President Obama wins a second term, then I predict he will be returned to office only by the hair of his chinny chin chin. Slim at best. No mandate. And, a bitterly divided country with a slimmer majority in the Senate and a slightly larger Republican majority in the House. If the President does what he did his first term, the country will be at a stalemate for four more years, which may not be a bad thing if it prevents more legislation like Obamacare from being passed.
Why do I think that Mitt Romney will win big, when most polls show a narrow lead by President Obama going into today’s vote? Bill Clinton and his advisers said it best, “It’s the economy, stupid!” No matter how Mr. Obama’s supporters try to spin it, the economy is simply not close to where it should be or needs to be. I believe most Americans know that and will be unwillingly to give the President another four years to fix the problem when it should have been fixed — or at least in better shape — by now. Blaming George W. Bush for all that ails America can only get you so far.
So, how does Mitt Romney get to a majority of the Electoral College vote today? There are a number of scenarios which could get him there, but I do not believe it will involve winning both Pennsylvania and Ohio. While it would be great if Mr. Romney won both, I don’t think he will end up winning the state that many have called the Republican’s great, white whale — the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. I hope that I am wrong and that the coal miners and supporters of a sane energy policy (i.e., not President Obama’s radical, job-killing coal policy) will turn out en mass to vote.
If Romney does not win Pennsylvania, he can nevertheless break 300 by winning Ohio (which, I believe he will) and then running the table with wins in all the swing states except Michigan and New Hampshire. That means that Gov. Romney takes Florida, North Carolina and Virginia — which were fairly “safe” — and also takes Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nevada.
With only one blue state — New Mexico — between Illinois & Michigan and the west coast, Mitt Romney could win big today. Will he? That’s my prediction, but I’m not betting on it (even if I was a betting man). Would I be surprised if President Obama pulls out the victory? No, not at all. In fact, up until the last few weeks, I never thought that Mitt Romney had a chance to win. At the end of the day — when all is said and done — no matter who is elected President, Jesus will still be King! And, that’s not a prediction or prognostication.
Filed under: Politics · Tags: 2000 Presidential Election, 2012 Presidential Election, Al Gore, Barack Obama, Electoral College, George W. Bush, hanging chads, Heather Wilson, Martin Heinrich, Mitt Romney, New Mexico, President Obama, Swing States