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2012 Electoral Predictions & Prognostications

I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet. I am the son of a funeral director. So, with the 2012 Presidential campaign coming to an end today (please, no lawyers and hanging chads), one candidate will still be very much alive and in good spirits and the other — well — dead and ready for the funeral and the grave.  Before the shoveling begins, here’s my Election Day predictions and prognostications.

Unlike the 2000 Presidential Election — when my vote for George W. Bush helped to offset the shenanigans in Broward and Dade Counties and prevented the catastrophe of an Al Gore Presidency — my vote cast for Mitt Romney and Republican Senate Candidate Heather Wilson will not have much bearing on who wins in New Mexico. From all indications, the Land of Enchantment has not been in play this year. We will see Martin Heinrich, an Albuquerque liberal Democrat, win the U.S. Senate seat without much trouble. I’m sure that Ms. Wilson is a nice woman, but she has been a fairly weak candidate. You know that there is not much of a contest when Heinrich runs nothing but positive ads in the final month of the campaign.

It’s good to know that New Mexico is not needed for Gov.Romney to get to a majority in the Electoral College. While no one really knows what will happen today, I believe that Mitt Romney will win and he will win big. If I am wrong and President Obama wins a second term, then I predict he will be returned to office only by the hair of his chinny chin chin. Slim at best. No mandate. And, a bitterly divided country with a slimmer majority in the Senate and a slightly larger Republican majority in the House. If the President does what he did his first term, the country will be at a stalemate for four more years, which may not be a bad thing if it prevents more legislation like Obamacare from being passed.

Why do I think that Mitt Romney will win big, when most polls show a narrow lead by President Obama going into today’s vote? Bill Clinton and his advisers said it best, “It’s the economy, stupid!” No matter how Mr. Obama’s supporters try to spin it, the economy is simply not close to where it should be or needs to be. I believe most Americans know that and will be unwillingly to give the President another four years to fix the problem when it should have been fixed — or at least in better shape — by now. Blaming George W. Bush for all that ails America can only get you so far.

So, how does Mitt Romney get to a majority of the Electoral College vote today? There are a number of scenarios which could get him there, but I do not believe it will involve winning both Pennsylvania and Ohio. While it would be great if Mr. Romney won both, I don’t think he will end up winning the state that many have called the Republican’s great, white whale — the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. I hope that I am wrong and that the coal miners and supporters of a sane energy policy (i.e., not President Obama’s radical, job-killing coal policy) will turn out en mass to vote.

If Romney does not win Pennsylvania, he can nevertheless break 300 by winning Ohio (which, I believe he will) and then running the table with wins in all the swing states except Michigan and New Hampshire. That means that Gov. Romney takes Florida, North Carolina and Virginia — which were fairly “safe” — and also takes Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nevada.

With only one blue state — New Mexico — between Illinois & Michigan and the west coast, Mitt Romney could win big today. Will he? That’s my prediction, but I’m not betting on it (even if I was a betting man). Would I be surprised if President Obama pulls out the victory? No, not at all. In fact, up until the last few weeks, I never thought that Mitt Romney had a chance to win. At the end of the day — when all is said and done — no matter who is elected President, Jesus will still be King! And, that’s not a prediction or prognostication.

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12 Responses to "2012 Electoral Predictions & Prognostications"

  1. Max says:

    ” … Mitt Romney will win big …”
    “If two of you on earth agree about anything you ask for, it will be done for you by my Father in heaven. For where two or three come together in my name, there am I with them.”
    Lord Jesus, let it be!!

  2. Bennett Willis says:

    I will always remember when Mr. Carter was defeated by a lot more than the polls suggested he would. It seemed to me that when a lot of us “got into the booth” that we asked that question (“Are we better off?”) and got the answer of, “No.” If Mr. Romney had stuck to a single theme, he might have had the same result. It seemed to me that he got off that mantra a few weeks ago–maybe it did not do well in a poll. We’ll see if “Carter’s problem” happens again.

    Should Mr. Romney be elected, I hope that you will remember the promises and proposals he has made. Based on the projections on Congress, I don’t think that there is much chance of any of them coming to fruition. (Name a couple that should happen if you want to disagree–surely you can find two. :) ) I’d dearly like for him to have the problems of Iran and Syria–a couple of issues that seem headed for an unhappy outcome. If he actually implements much of what he has proposed, I’ll be braced for the second (deeper, if that is possible) dip of a double dip recession.

    I was uncertain about Ohio until Mr. Romney came up with the Jeep nonsense. I think that will cause several voters to swing Mr. Obama’s way.

    Since I’m past 70 and still working full time, I’m probably as braced as I can get. :) But the state of our political lack of ability to work on solutions and the determined distruction of the political middle distresses me. We are apparently unable to vote out those causing it. I expect my representative to (from time to time) consider the needs of the whole country and not just the needs of our district and his/her need to get reelected. Of course, several that tried that got cleaned out in the primaries.

    What our representatives call “principles” seem to be more the “deeply held beliefs” of their major contributors. Between their fund raising needs and their pledges to Grover, they don’t have much ability to go for solutions to the problems.

    1. Christiane says:

      Hi BENNETT,

      you wrote: “I was uncertain about Ohio until Mr. Romney came up with the Jeep nonsense. I think that will cause several voters to swing Mr. Obama’s way.”

      in retrospect, it was a great mistake to say that to the people of Ohio, as now it is coming out that it infuriated them and turned many towards Obama

      I agree with you that Grover Norquist holds the souls of many Republican elected officials in his hands, and he can order them accordingly . . . I guess they forgot they signed on originally to serve the people, but that’s another story and a sad one

  3. hariette says:

    Hey, Howell, I found this a rather interesting read… in light of everything that occurred… and appears we are facing in the next few years. http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/50896

    1. Howell Scott says:

      Hariette,

      Sorry for not responding sooner. Have been in the hospital since Friday with some type of inflammatory bowel problem.Doing better today and hope to be out tomorrow. Thanks for the link. Appreciate you and your prayers. God bless,

      Howell

  4. Tom Parker says:

    Howell:

    You predicted:”While no one really knows what will happen today, I believe that Mitt Romney will win and he will win big. If I am wrong and President Obama wins a second term, then I predict he will be returned to office only by the hair of his chinny chin chin. ”

    How did you and others, Rove, Rush, many Southern Baptists etc miss this so badly?

    Electoral College 303-206

    Senate 53 d 45 r

    Popular Vote “The popular votes are still coming in, but Obama has a slight lead with 59,621,436 to Romney’s 56,989,709″

    1. Howell Scott says:

      Tom,

      Sorry for the delay in responding, but have been in the hospital since Friday. Doing better, but not how I had planned to spend the weekend :-) I think how so many people, including me, missed the prediction so badly is because many did not believe that President Obama would be able to replicate his 2008 turnout and coalition. Although he did not get as many votes as he did in 2008 and Romney got less than McCain, Mr. Obama was neverless able to hold together his coalition and increase his share of the Hispanic vote and increase the gender gap. He also saw younger voters turn out again to vote for him. None of this bodes well for the GOP going forward. If the Republicans do not do a better job of reaching out to some of these constituencies, then they can expect the same results in 2016. I’m not sure that other Democrat candidates would have the same appeal as President Obama, but conservatives and Republicans cannot bank on that. If they do, then they should not be surprised to lose the Presidency again and lose the House in 2016. Thanks and God bless,

      Howell

  5. Tom Parker says:

    Howell:

    I do hope that you will be OK. None of us know how our health will be from day to day. Life definitely is uncertain when it comes to our health. I respect your fairness to all who come to your blog. It is refreshing.

  6. Dwight McKissic says:

    Howell,

    Thankful you are doing better. We really enjoyed and appreciated the Felliwship with you and your son. I hope the oxtails had nothing to do with your recent hospital stay-:). We look forward to seeing you again on a future trip to this area.

    1. Howell Scott says:

      Dwight,

      Stephen and I enjoyed the fellowship with you as well. I put the rumors to bed that the oxtails had anything to do with my recent illness :-) Actually, that was probably the last BBQ that I will be able to eat for a while until things settle down. Hope you have a wonderful and blessed Thanksgiving.

      Howell

  7. Bennett Willis says:

    I’m glad to hear that you are doing better. I think that a significant number of Republicans had a variation on your problem after last week–most just wrote about it rather than going to the hospital. :)

    I think that we can conclude that when most of the voters went into the booth and asked how am I doing, they also asked why. Mr. Obama did not receive as much credit for the problem as you thought he would. It turned out that if you “averaged the polls” that they were quite close.

    I think that the present “poor mouthing” of the election is typical. It is loudly said but by a relative few of the population. I know that here in my part of Texas (Ron Paul’s old district) that we seem to be going about our business. I don’t think that I have actually heard anyone say anything about the election. Several have griped on Facebook but they seem to be calming down. There is the secession petition, but this is Texas and we even have (old) bumper stickers advocating this.

    I am hopeful that the Republican part of Congress is saying, “I would rather go to the people in two years with the country in better shape because I helped it get there,” rather than the old mantra, “If I trash it then my side will get elected.” I think that there is a possibility that we may see progress.

    I think that the present political mood can be almost completely laid at the feet of the Tea Party. If you think this is what the country should look like…well, we have a lot less in common than I thought we did. I’m not sure how people who campaigned on a “no compromise” platform can cooperate, but I hope they find a way. I wonder, if Grover announced that he had burned all the old pledges and was now going to collect new ones, how he would do?

    If this country is going to have a “political middle” again, we have to pay a lot more attention to the primaries and try to put forth candidates that have at least a finger in the middle of the political aisle–and who are not pledged to the right. (I have given up on being “fair and balanced” since I don’t believe that is actually an issue.) With the district lines set up around the country so that almost all of them are “safe,” it makes it difficult for candidates to be anywhere the middle. The only danger to most elected officials is attack from either the right flank or the left flank. This does not promote being in the middle–and I see this as a significant problem.

    Remember that Mr. Nixon could have talks with China and Mr. Clinton could tighten up the wellfare rules. Maybe Mr. Obama can do things you don’t think he will if he gets a little cooperation.

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